"The minutes have been a little more dovish than some in the markets were expecting," said Sara Yates, a Forex analyst at Barclays. "The markets are looking at October/November for the next rate hike."
"Survey-based measures pointed to weak consumption of services in the first quarter," the minutes said. "The volume of retail sales had been broadly flat for some months. And surveys of consumer confidence had remained far below their historic average levels."
The fragility of consumer spending was the main contributory factor to the decision to leave the rate where it is. In the current circumstances, a rate rise would "adversely affect consumer confidence, leading to an exaggerated impact on spending", the MPC said. And evidence from the Bank’s regional agents, published with the MPC’s minutes, highlighted the changes in the way that people are spending.
"Dining out in restaurants had declined but demand for fast food continued to strengthen. And there was some evidence of a switch away from the use of private cars towards public transport," the agents said. There was also evidence that consumers are holding back on non-essential purchases.
Reaction to the minutes was swift and the FTSE 100 index recorded its biggest one-day points gain since last September. Giles Watts, head of equities at City Index said: "Intel kicked things off, with Asian markets posting gains of 1.6% and this continued into Europe."
However, some members, who voted for higher rates, believe a prolonged period of above-target inflation could become embedded in wage and price-setting if the Bank continues to ignore price growth.
“Waiting for this risk to crystallise before beginning to tighten monetary policy could be costly,” they warned.
But it looks as if we have several months yet to test the theory.
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( 3.1 / 32 )In case anyone had missed it, Prince William and Kate Middleton are to be married on April 29th. The day has been decreed a public holiday and an extra 600,000 tourists are expected to celebrate, along with the half million or so who are normally in the country.
These people all have to eat, drink and sleep somewhere, so hotels, restaurants, pubs and transport companies are hoping for bumper sales. And people who aren’t going out are almost certainly holding or going to parties locally, which means an increase in supermarket sales. Then there are the sales of memorabilia, which appear to be going through the roof.
Of course, many people aren’t interested in the royal nuptials, with some merely taking advantage of the extra day’s holiday in what is already a short month. Tour agent Thomas Cook has seen bookings for April surge by over a quarter, as people make a dash for ‘wedding freedom’, preferring to lie on a beach abroad.
And some business owners are concerned at the lack of productivity at a time when they may just be seeing an economic turnaround. Sara Lee, a spokeswoman for the Federation of Small Businesses said that while many of its members will benefit, especially those in retail, for others “it will have a negative impact, especially those with cash flow problems."
Every bank holiday costs around £6 billion in lost productivity and because April is awash with them, UK plc could lose up to £30 billion in the last two weeks of this month.
There will be additional cost to the country, as security is being tightened enormously over the weekend, which it is estimated could be over £30m but experts have called this a drop in the ocean compared with the extra revenue the wedding will bring, particularly to London.
Whatever one’s point of view, at a time when we are being urged to be happy by the Government, perhaps the 29th gives us all a day to try happiness in a variety of ways.
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( 3 / 280 )The latest Dividend Monitor from Capita Registrars, published yesterday, showed that investors will get exceptional payouts this year – the highest level of dividend income since 2008.
The Dividend Monitor, which analyses data on all UK dividends provided by Exchange Data International, shows that UK companies returned £15bn to investors in the first quarter of the year, which is more than 10 per cent higher than the same period in 2010.
The report goes on to estimate that shareholders will receive a total of £64.2bn in dividend payments during the whole of 2011, which is 13.6 per cent more than during the previous 12 months.
Dividends were boosted last year by BP’s full £1.8bn payout and other companies rushing to beat the 50p tax rate but the biggest contributor by far to the bumper returns in the first quarter of this year is International Power, which contributed more than a tenth of the total, at £1.6bn.
Chief Executive of Capita Registrars, Charles Cryer, said: "2011 has got off to a very strong start, and underlying dividend growth will accelerate from here. Even though there are still uncertainties in the wider economy, the dividend recovery is very broadly based, indicating companies are much more confident in their financial position."
Capita believes that FTSE 100 dividends will show brisker growth from the second quarter onwards and in a sign of growing corporate confidence, 126 companies out of 156, which paid dividends were increasing or reinstating them, while only 40 cut or cancelled them. These figures contrast sharply with those for 2009, when the majority of companies reduced the amount of cash they returned to shareholders.
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( 2.9 / 245 )Chancellor George Osborne and Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, are set for a row with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over its plans for a funding package aimed at tackling the Eurozone crisis.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Head of the IMF, said that Britain should be part of a more coherent plan to deal with government debt and criticised piecemeal attempts to resolve individual countries' debt problems, which critics believe leads to instability and undermines investor confidence in Europe.
Mr Osborne retorted that resolving the debt problems of Eurozone countries is a matter for the Eurozone and not for the broader EU, which includes nations with their own currencies, such as the UK. And his views on Eurozone debt are mirrored by the Bank of England.
In fact, he would like to go further and repeal Article 122 of the Treaty of Lisbon, which was used to coerce European member states into bailing out Ireland and Greece. He has now stated that the UK taxpayer will not be expected to help fund further bailouts after helping Portugal but this can only be certain if Article 122 is amended.
However, the Chancellor has backed the IMF’s scrutiny of the Government’s deficit reduction programme.
"This is not something we should in any way be nervous about as a country. It is something we should positively welcome," Osborne said. He also denied that an excessive deficit reduction was to blame for the economic woes in other European countries and instead cited Spain as a new example of how credible budget reduction measures could help rebuild market confidence.
At a time when 72 per cent of the total cost of UK regulation now originates from Brussels and the overall cost of red tape to businesses in the EU is €124 billion a year, it might be interesting to ponder just how European UK plc feels.
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( 3.1 / 213 )Consumer Focus, the statutory watchdog for energy consumers, is warning that thousands of small businesses could be hit by huge energy bills after being unknowingly under-charged by their suppliers for years. And their figures for last year show that 40 per cent of all complaints received from small businesses about their energy bills are about back-dated billing and warned that the problem could get worse.
Audrey Gallacher, head of energy at Consumer Focus, said: “Getting a bill for thousands of pounds out of the blue is a nightmare scenario for any small business, especially in these difficult times. With suppliers able to go back six years, supplier mistakes can add up to big debts that could potentially cripple some firms.”
And David Caro, Environment and Energy Policy Chairman for the Federation of Small Businesses said: “Small businesses have suffered unfair and non-transparent contract terms from uncaring energy suppliers for a long time. Although a micro business’ behaviour and consumption is very similar to that of a customer in the domestic market, they are not covered by the same protections and safeguards, which makes small businesses even more vulnerable.
“There is a need for a radical shake-up of the practice of estimated billing, especially when the energy suppliers are in the wrong. A large unexpected energy bill, particularly in these difficult trading times, can be as serious as the last nail in the coffin for a small firm, which is then forced out of business through no fault of its own.”
Consumer Focus is urging businesses to take steps to avoid unexpected bills by ensuring they are paying the right amount. They can easily find they are paying too little, for example when they move into new premises that have multiple gas or electricity meters, when meters are read incorrectly or estimated bills are too low. The guideline would appear to be, if in doubt, check your meter(s) and contact your supplier immediately before bills get out of hand.
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